Real Estate Investment: Return on Investment and Cash Flow Calculation

Portland region August home sales followed a common pattern in the West, dropping nearly 11 percent from July to the lowest level for an August in at least 15 years. The overall median sale price rose insignificantly from July and remained 11.1 percent lower than a year earlier, a real estate information service reported.

Foreclosed properties weren’t as potent of a force as in other Western markets, but they edged higher in August. Homes that had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months represented 18.0 percent of all Portland-area resales in August, up from 16.2 percent in July and up from 7.8 percent a year ago. At their peak in March this year, such foreclosure resales made up 21.8 percent of resales. Across much of the boom-bust West in August, foreclosed properties continued to account for close to 40 percent, if not more, of all resale activity.

In August 2,633 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton metro area (see included MSA counties below). That sales total fell 10.8 percent from July and fell 2.2 percent from a year earlier, according to MDA DataQuick of San Diego, Calif. The firm tracks real estate trends nationally via public property records.

The total number of homes sold was the lowest for the month of August since at least 1994, when DataQuick’s complete Portland region sales stats begin. The 10.8 percent sales decline between July and August was unusually sharp. On average, sales have increased 3.4 percent between those two months. In July, which has the highest sales total for any month this year, escrow closings had shot up 10 percent from June and 5.7 percent from July 2008. July had ended a 40-month streak in which each month’s sales were lower than a year earlier.

The August tally for resales of single-family detached houses fell 9.7 percent from July but was 2.8 percent higher than a year ago, marking the second consecutive month in which sales for that home category have increased year-over-year. Before July, resales of single-family houses had fallen on a year-over-year basis every month since February 2006.

Sales of newly built homes were at a record low for an August, while resales of condos were at the lowest level for an August since 2001.

The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos combined in August was $240,000, up 0.4 percent from $239,000 in July but down 11.1 percent from $269,900 a year earlier. The August median was the highest since it was $242,000 this June, but was 17.0 percent below the peak $289,000 median in August 2007.

The median price paid for resale single-family detached houses was $244,000, the same as in July but 10.4 percent lower than in August 2008 and 17.3 percent lower than the peak median of $295,000, which occurred in August of 2007. The median for resale houses hit a nearly-four-year low of $238,000 this April.

The median price paid for resale condos in August fell to $154,900, down 7.2 percent from July and down 15.4 percent from a year earlier. August’s resale condo median stood 26.2 percent below the $210,000 peak median reached in May 2007.

Another price gauge analysts watch, the median paid per square foot for resale detached houses, has been rising or steady for four months. In August, buyers paid a median $155 per square foot, the same as in July but down 10.1 percent from a year earlier and down 19.6 percent from the $193 peak in June 2007.

In August about 41.2 percent of all Portland-area buyers used government-insured FHA loans, a popular choice among first-time buyers, according to an analysis of public records. FHA loans allow a down payment of as little as 3.5 percent. Absentee buyers, including many investors, made up 12.5 percent of all purchases – a relatively low percentage in the West and a reflection of the relatively small number of low-cost foreclosures for sale in the Portland market. In addition to investors, absentee buyers can include second-home/vacation buyers and any others who indicate at the time of purchase that their property tax bills will go to a different address.

The use of adjustable-rate mortgages (”ARMs”) to buy Portland-area homes rose to 4.4 percent of all purchase loans in August, up from 2.9 percent in July and up from a decade low of 0.5 percent in May this year. It was the highest ARM percentage since ARMs also accounted for 4.4 percent of all purchase loans last October. However, August’s purchase ARM level was down from 10.7 percent a year ago and down from the monthly ARM-use average of 23.7 percent this decade.

ARMs can be an important fuel source for higher-end sales. In August the median loan amount for purchase ARMs was $268,349, while the median price paid for homes financed with ARMs was $335,000 – nearly 40 percent higher than the median paid for all homes sold.

Foreclosures remained relatively high by historical standards, as they did across much of the West. In August 588 houses and condos were lost to foreclosure in the five-county Portland area, down less than 1 percent from July and up 94.7 percent from a year ago. August’s foreclosure total was 27 percent higher than the monthly average over the past year. The figures are based on the number of “trustees deeds” filed with the region’s county recorder offices. A trustees deed signals that a home was lost to foreclosure.

DataQuick’s Portland area statistics reflect sales in Clackamas, Multnomah, Washington and Yamhill counties in Oregon and Clark County in Washington.

Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA MSA*

*Data reflect sales in Clackamas, Multnomah, Washington and Yamhill counties in Oregon and Clark County in Washington.

Media calls: Andrew LePage (916)456-7157